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Chapter 11 Uncertainty

       "Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one." Voltaire

Warning: the following may be offensive to some and is intended for those with a very flexible sense of humor. It contains profound philosophy, profanity, pontifications on physics, politics, and a profane penis parable. What else would you expect from a coyote, propriety or just more pee? I'll put my leg down now.

I'm back. Did you miss me? Are you certain? This week I want to talk about the human need for certainty. Humans need to feel certain that they understand the world they inhabit. Certainty gives them a sense that they are in control over an environment where everything is very much uncertain. Uncertainty leads to feelings of helplessness and insecurity. This explains the human need for certainty. It is harder to explain the extremes they go to get this sense of certainty and the extent and stubbornness to which they cling to their certainty.

To cope and to gain a false sense of certainty, people invent explanations. They explain things with gods, magic, superstition, and science. Even if the bases for their reasoning are sound, they often invalidate their arguments with incredibly bizarre logic, lies, or personal prejudices. We have all known fanatics who are certain of their explanations no matter how bizarre, ill-founded or illogical.

I'm not questioning anyone's personal beliefs. We need beliefs, but perhaps to be open minded, we should temper our beliefs or at least our conclusions based on these beliefs with an iota of uncertainty. Personally, the only belief I have found that I can be certain of is Descartes, "I think therefore I am." Anything beyond that is no more certain than a dream. Of course, you can't be certain that I exist, but trust me, I do. Now we are certain about me and thee. Well... maybe not so certain about thee. Open mindedness only goes so far.

Modern science even has an uncertainty principle much to the frustration of the science fanatics who abhor uncertainty. The Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that there is a limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties, such as position and momentum, can be simultaneously known. In other words, the more accurately one property is measured, the less accurately the other property can be known. The simplest way to think about the uncertainty principle is that any attempt to measure something will always affect what you are trying to measure. It will either change the characteristic you are measuring, or change some other characteristic associated with it. You cannot measure a moving particle's position without affecting its momentum. Your measurement device will interact with the particle changing either its location or momentum or both. You can know either its location or speed exactly, but not both. The more certain you are of one, the less certain you will be of the other.

Actually, most scientist believe the uncertainty is not just due to the interaction with the measurement device but is in fact for all intents and purposes a fundamental characteristic of our universe. Not only is a particle's exact position always uncertain, but in fact it has a probability of being anywhere in the universe and can only be narrowed down by being measured. Of course, this measurement still results in some uncertainty. This uncertainty leads to the theory of quantum superposition which states, a quantum system can be in multiple states at the same time until it is measured. The connection here is entangled in the complexities of Quantum Mechanics that I am not about to go into further here. You're welcome.

Even renowned physicists like Erwin Schrödinger had problems with some of the suppositions of quantum mechanics. Schrödinger's Cat is a thought experiment devised by him to illustrate a paradox of quantum superposition wherein a hypothetical cat in a box may be considered both alive and dead simultaneously because its fate is linked to a random event that may (or may not) occur depending on the probabilistic position of a particle which only becomes fixed when it is measured. In other words, the fate of the cat is not determined until someone opens the box to observe/measure the cat's existence.

It's time for a joke. Heisenberg, Schrödinger, and Ohm are on a road trip, and they get pulled over. Heisenberg is driving and the cop asks him, "Do you know how fast you were going?"

"No, but I know exactly where I am" Heisenberg replies.

The cop says, "You were going 80 miles an hour." Heisenberg throws up his hands and shouts "Great! Now I'm lost!"

The cop thinks this is suspicious and orders him to pop open the trunk. He checks it out and says, "Do you know you have a dead cat back here?"

To which Schrödinger shouts "We do now, asshole!"

The cop tries to arrest them despite Ohm's resistance.

    Now for something less esoteric.

The Physics Professor asks the class if anyone can explain the Uncertainty Principle.

A student stands up and says: There are four nuns, and they want to know about a penis, so they ask the vicar, and he offers each of them a feel.

Afterwards the first nun says: The penis is soft like the flowers in a meadow.

The second nun says: You are wrong my sister; the penis is firm like the lumberjack's bicep.

The third nun says: No, my sisters, the penis is hard like a branch from a tree.

The fourth nun says: No, my sisters, the penis is full of fluid for it squirted on me.

The moral of the story is that measurement affects that which is measured, and uncertainty is the only thing that is certain.

The professor fell down laughing and died. I bet you certainly didn't see that coming.

Have you noticed that people who are always certain are quick to belligerently criticize those who disagree with them? These types rarely have a sense of humor. I prefer a human who is quick to laugh rather than one who is always frowning (Yes, I'm picturing the current presidential candidates. Especially the one who always frowns and whose political ads make fun of the one who frequently laughs.)

Did you know, Albert Einstein attributed his brilliant mind to having a child-like sense of humor.  Indeed, a number of studies have found an association between humor and intelligence. Researchers in Austria recently discovered that funny people, have higher IQs than their less funny peers. They argue that it takes both cognitive and emotional ability to process and produce humor. Their analysis shows that funny people have higher verbal and non-verbal intelligence, and they score lower in mood disturbance and aggressiveness. You tell me which candidate is more intelligent, the aggressive one who claims he has a high IQ or the one who laughs at him when he does?

While we are talking about what is wrong with American voters, I asked a man whether uncertainty or apathy was the bigger problem. The man replied, "I'm not sure and I don't care."

Well, I do care, and I believe the problem with humanity is not uncertainty, but rather too much certainty. Specifically, people who are certain they are right when they should be more open-minded and proceed more cautiously. I'm not just talking about politicians now, although all politicians from both parties are guilty of this fault. The fault appears in many others. 

Scientists told us with certainty that cholesterol was bad. Now, opinions are mixed with recent studies indicating that in otherwise healthy people, high cholesterol is not a problem, but in fact improves brain function in older adults.

And we can't forget the well-intentioned environmentalist certain they knew what was best when they stopped lumbering in California. The loss of roads maintained by the lumber companies and the increase in brush which the loggers no longer cleared led to the worst forest fires in history. Environmentalists were also responsible for banning paper bags to save the forests. Now they realize paper bags do less damage than their plastic replacements. They shut down most of our nuclear reactors which they now have decided are a preferable alternative to fossil fuel powerplants.

Ifonly these humans had not been so certain and quick to implement their rash solutions,we would not have to fix their fixes. Wewould have kept a lot of plastic out of our environment, we would have enoughnuclear power to meet our needs, and Farley could have enjoyed many more eggsin his life and maybe his brain would be healthier. 

Certainty causes catastrophes. Uncertainty, unbeatable!

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