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Confirmation Bias

This has been a thorn in my side since forever. If you're not aware, confirmation bias is the tendency for people (everyone, really) to focus on information that backs a preconceived conclusion. It's the reason two opposing people can be presented with the same data and walk away believing it supports their side.

In my opinion, it's the most insidious of fallacies because it's difficult to see, and once seen, even harder to admit to. Once you concede one error, you have to admit your view is flawed, however marginally. I think wisdom is defined by not only the ability to make judgments without bias, but also limiting your personal pride so correction is less painful than removing a limb.

I can give you a personal example. When Target recently released a trans-friendly line of clothing, I accepted that they had created pro-trans swimsuits for children based on 1. my experiences with LGBT and the trans community (see earlier chapters) and 2. my trust in a usually reliable source. It wasn't hard to walk back, but I'd made the claim at least twice before I learned the truth - that the swimsuits were simply displayed along with adult wear.

I generally don't have difficulty accepting truth when it's demonstrated because I've been humbled far worse in my life and by comparison it's a pretty minor issue, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't vulnerable to it.

It's worse in the modern world where people are almost rabidly tribal, jettisoning long-standing friendships because the synaptic rush of virtue signaling has taken priority. There's little worse than being excluded from your inner circle.

I claim an advantage here too. I've been ejected from my inner circle three times, forcing me into life transformations that I might not have chosen on my own. One was my fault. One was my choice. The third was eye-opening. I have social callouses that mitigate my fear of rejection, a trait I've brought into my writing. I mean... I don't ask for brutal reviews of my work because I enjoy people putting me down, I ask because I've learned that weathering rejection yields long-standing benefits.

I'm also a skeptic. I tend to question everything, and I will generally research the shit out of anything I have a vested interest in, and that applies to my own preconceptions. In 23 years I've lived more lives than most do in 100. That isn't a brag, I'd have changed almost everything if it were left up to me.

But being a skeptic doesn't mean you just fall for every piece of new information that assaults your understanding. You have to invest yourself in facts without severing it from truth. I could go into a whole new essay discussing the difference between facts and truth, but for now let me just point out that facts are tools, not answers in themselves. Ask anyone in statistics - often the same set of data can be used to prove two contrary points. To paraphrase the famous Reagan quote, "It's not that you are ignorant, it's that you know so many things that aren't so." That sounds facetious, but it's not... it's a common failing among humans.

"So fine!" you say with a hint of tolerant snark, "how can we ever know anything is right?"

Fuck if I know.

Actually, I do have AN answer if not THE answer. Like so many things, truth is a journey, not a destination. Don't become so invested in your conclusions that you miss important details. Sometimes conflicting facts are both true, they're only conflicting because you're asking the wrong questions, or because your worldview only permits one of them to come into focus. Kick your hubris in the nuts, because clinging to your conclusions for social points is the WORST reason to believe in anything.

That doesn't mean don't have ideals. I believe murder is wrong... that's an ideal. That still leaves room for a discussion on the morality of war, or even killing in general. I could put a bullet in someone to defend myself or my family and still believe murder is an evil without being a hypocrite, and it doesn't even take mental gymnastics to get there. I'll take it further. I could put a bullet in an innocent to protect myself or someone I love. It's not murder, and doing it doesn't change my ideals, though it would almost certainly fuck me up for life. 

The same can be said about lying. I HATE lies, but there's a "wartime" application for deceit. I could weave an intricate fiction to achieve an important goal without undermining my position on falsehoods in general. By way of illustration, I might embellish my past to land a decent job, provided I knew I could actually do the work and wasn't setting myself up for failure, but I would never accuse someone of a crime if there was any chance they were innocent. I could absolutely lie my ass off if the alternative meant people would be hurt.

Note that neither applies to heated discussions. I've threatened violence and murder, questioned lifestyles, and torn people down in the middle of an argument without meaning a word of it. My temper is something I continue to work on, but hyperbole is a thing, and most people can identify it when they hear it.

There's so much  more I could say on the subject but I want to bring up one more point. People entrenched in confirmation bias eventually need a villain, it's one of the telltale signs that someone is caught up in their own little echo chamber. I'm not talking about the devil or some supernatural power, because "the devil made me do it" is the dumbest excuse for misbehavior in the history of ever.

A couple modern examples: Orange Man Bad, and Let's Go Brandon (I'm just gonna piss everyone off today). The point is that both coerce people to condemn good decisions and promote bullshit strictly because it reinforces their perception of a dominant evil, something they can strive against instead of dealing with actual problems. You hate your boss because you've been neglecting your work, or producing crap you wouldn't accept if the roles were reversed. You hate your partner because you want something you can't have while you're tethered to them. You hate people who don't align themselves with you because it hurts too much to admit that you fell for the propaganda.

All it really does is create a smokescreen that the actual evil uses to act without being seen, untouchable, whether that evil is a group of bad people doing bad things, or the psychological wardens that keep you imprisoned in your own mind.

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